The Dragon Hug: China-Pakistan-Turkey In The Drivers Seat In A Fast-changing, Disturbing Geopolitical Landscape?
While events continue to unfold in Afghanistan, the situation remains murky, though with more clarity on its future possible trajectory. The course of events have opened threadbare the active connivance, planning, financing, international manoeuvrings of Pakistan in hoisting Taliban into power
For a Senior Afghan Taliban leader to suggest Pakistan was a second home to Taliban, and the recent revelations that the so far dreaded and elusive Supreme leader of Taliban Akhundzada, whose writ looms large, will soon emerge from his safe havens in Pakistan, does not leave anything further to imagination that the Anti-West war was not only fought but stage managed by the active involvement and connivance of Pakistan.
That today the huge casualties of the Western alliance and local Afghanis in the past two decades, are not so much, thanks to their desire to domesticate a uninhabitable and a violent Afghanistan, but through surprisingly one of their very own, the Pakistan they professed their allegiance to-Et tu, Brute?
America gave them the money, the firepower, diplomatic and the emotional umbrella and support under the mistaken self-centered belief that Pakistan was the gateway to neutralise China’s hegemony and would provide a roadmap into Russia’s backyard of Central Asian republics.
Pakistan had deftly hedged its geopolitical future, in the no mans land on its western borders Afghanistan the land which was being wooed by all the major super powers - USA Russia China, for their own individual and geopolitical considerations.
Afghanistan was the lare and the lure, which formed the fulcrum of Pakistan’s Policy of playing one against the other and keeping the Taliban fire burning at all cost either to itself or to the world around.
That it had already sworn allegiance to terrorism as a state policy became easier for it to put its policy of deceit, deception and guile into full play. China probably found in Pakistan the perfect disoriented prey to gallop its ambitions into Central Asia Europe and into Russia’s backyard.
Turkeys disenchantments with the NATO alliance due to stoppage of the huge economic largesse to them, was a reason enough for China to lure it with a huge economic bonus in the form of a direct bank transfer of billions of dollars into their accounts, not in kind but in cash, as the grapevine goes.
For a economic and a cash starved nation Turkey, China was a godsend! For China, a small price to pay for the silence of Turkey against the ill-treatment and genocide by China of its large Uighur Muslims, who had a traditional Turkish lineage.
It was quid-pro-quo and Turkey became a force multiplier of an aggressive China seeking domination of Asia and Europe. Turkey as perceptions go, was instigated covertly by China to keep France occupied within itself with a domestic communal cauldron threatening to explode wounds of Armenia and Azerbaijan reopened and conflict tinkered around with, to keep Russia preoccupied and limited in its own landscape.
Russia isolated with its anti-US position and a unwilling partner of the emerging geopolitical scenario being driven by China realising, though late in the day, the threat of the emerging China-Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iran-Iraq-Turkey axis, to its own Geopolitical ambitions and being suddenly reduced to a pawn in this endgame, distanced from America and cocooned in its neighbourhood with a smiling, feigning brotherhood ‘Dragon’.
With Turkey being looked upto by the new Taliban dispensation to manage its airports and airforce, do we have any doubt that China is in full control of Afghanistan ?
China too, as is being talked about, is ready with a huge force of around 8000 dedicated to the UN, should UN decide to send in a peacekeeping force into Afghanistan. Should that were to happen, then China would have a dominant number in the UN peacekeeping contingents in Afghanistan. Coupled with Turkey handling the Airforce, this would be a great combo arrangement to clandestinely control the country and further the interests of China.
China seemingly has its roadmap well entrenched and into a great Dragon Hug with Friends Pakistan and Turkey. Will the recent takeover by Taliban, with a Chinese proxy Pakistan in de facto control, Turkey just a helping hand away, perforce push Russia to recalibrate its Geopolitical roadmap and get out of the ambush China has laid for it too.
Will Russia accept Chinas primacy and hegemony ?
With America’s credibility as a reliable ally having been demolished, what it means to its other allies Taiwan etc who are struggling to thwart China's expansionist plans ?
Is it now time for America and the rest of the World, including Russia to understand that Pakistan is at the fulcrum of the world galloping towards another disaster and the reason for terrorism to entrench itself once again as a threat ?
Will Pakistan pay the price or yet again with its deceit, deception and guile continue to fool the ‘Fall Guys ‘Of the World ?
(The author is a retired chief warden, civil defence, Lucknow)