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Polstrat-News X Exit Poll Predicts Mamta Banerjee's Return To Writers Building
New Delhi, April 29 (TNA) With the voting for the West Bengal state assembly polls concluding all eyes are now set on the results to be counted on May 2. With balloting ending today evening, Polstrat and News X conducted an Exit poll with a sample size of 10,000 to gauge the mind of the electorate.
The Polstrat-News X exit poll for the 2021 election predicts that despite an aggressive campaign by the BJP, Mamata Banerjee and TMC are set to retain the Writers Building. And so while the TMC's margin might shrink a little bit, its candidates will win in 152 to 162 seats in the 292 seat assembly.
The Assembly Elections in West Bengal were held between March 27 and April 29, 2021 in 8 phases for all 292 constituencies (voting for 2 constituencies was delayed and is scheduled to be held on 16 May 2021).
Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee-led All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) won the last Assembly Election in the state in 2016 with a vote share of 44.91% and 211 seats. The AITC is fighting to win a third term in the state in a direct contest with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance.
Another major front contesting the elections is the Indian National Congress in alliance with the Left. The exit polls results indicate a setback for 'Didi' as compared to the 2016 elections where it managed to secure 211 seats. On the other hand, its vote share will only drop by 1.7% from 45.6% in 2016 to 43.90% in 2021. This is in line with the 2019 Lok Sabha elections when the party was able to secure 43.7% of the votes winning 22 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats.
The BJP, which emerged as the principal challenger to the TMC in 2021, is slated to make a big gain both in terms of seats and votes, increasing its tally from just 3 seats and a vote share of 10.3% in 2016 to anywhere between 115 to 125 seats and a vote share of 40.50% this time. The BJP had made its way into the state during the 2019 General Elections as it managed to secure a vote share of 40.64% and 18 seats.
Congress+Left, the third major alliance in the state will not be able to retain its former position in the assembly with its seat share dropping to a range as low as 16 to 26 seats. Its vote share will see a fall of 23.5% coming down to just 10.70% votes in 2021.
Across demographics, all the three major alliances and parties did not see a major difference in the votes received from males and females. For the TMC, more females (45.20% ) voted in favour of it as compared to males (42.60%). Whereas for the BJP, males (42.90%) showered more support for it than females (38.10%).
When looking at the caste and class differences, the BJP is slated to get a majority chunk of the support from the SC & ST community with 58.10% of the SC & ST respondents saying they voted for the BJP. The TMC on the other hand, received much lesser support from the SC &ST community, with only 29.40% SC+ST respondents saying they voted for TMC.
The Congress + Left alliance failed to cut through the caste barrier in any big way, and according to the poll, only 7.90% of SC+ST respondents said they voted for the alliance.
Around 14.10% of Muslims said they voted for the Congress and Left alliance, while the BJP managed to garner 14.00% of Muslim votes.
Votes from the Hindu community (other than SC & ST community) leaned more in favour of the BJP which received 49.50% of their support while the TMC received a much lesser share of 32.40% of their votes. Only 10.0% of Hindus said they voted for the Congress + Left alliance.
The margin of error in the exit poll is 3%.